The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
The Budget assumes significance as it comes on the back of lower-than-expected growth numbers during the second quarter and geopolitical uncertainty.
Following the lacklustre growth numbers in the second quarter (Q2FY25), economists believe the upcoming Union Budget for 2025-26 should focus on reforms that will stimulate consumption, manufacturing and spur employment. India's growth unexpectedly slowed to 5.4 per cent in the second quarter, due to low capital formation, weak consumption, besides adverse weather impact.
State Bank of India (SBI), in a report on Friday, claimed a significant decline in the headline poverty ratio in rural areas on account of enhanced physical infrastructure, higher consumption growth in the bottom fractile and direct benefit transfers (DBTs).
The government's capital expenditure in the April-November period of financial year 2024-25 (FY25) continued to contract with a 12.3 per cent decline year-on-year (Y-o-Y), according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts on Tuesday.
'Inflation is not good for industry. Nor for the economy as a whole.'
'We have to retain some fiscal headroom without compromising on the promised fiscal consolidation roadmap.'
Amid the political blame game over Bengal's potato ban, which led to shortages in Jharkhand and Odisha, Uttar Pradesh farmers are the unlikely winners.
'It has also outlived its initial purpose of reducing physical gold imports.'
Taxing capital less may not lead to more investments but taxing more will drive capital away, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Friday said during a discussion on Inequality, Economic Growth and Inclusion. While it is easy to drive capital out, bringing it back is a lot harder, said Nageswaran.
As RBI governor, Sanjay Malhotra will have to give the highest priority to the interest of the economy while deciding on the growth-inflation trade off at Mint Street.
The need for a manufacturing policy, reining in food inflation and raising investment in the country were among key suggestions given by economists who met Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and senior ministry officials in the first round of pre-Budget consultations on Friday.
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
'Not paying workers enough will end up being self-destructive or harmful for the corporate sector itself.'
The cold wave days in December too are expected to be 'below-normal' this year.
Latest GDP growth numbers a one-off development and not the beginning of a trend, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran.
Prospects of a bumper kharif harvest are expected to lower food inflation in the coming months, making the country's inflation outlook benign, the Union Ministry of Finance (FinMin) said in its monthly economic report for October released on Monday.
A fresh survey to identify a minimum of eight million new beneficiaries of the flagship rural housing scheme, in addition to the 12 million already identified, will use the latest face-recognition tools to minimise gaps, a senior official said on Tuesday. The survey, which has already started across the country for building the fresh 20 million new rural houses over the next five years, can also be done by the beneficiary himself/herself as well through the Awaassoft mobile application specially created for this purpose.
States are on track of fiscal consolidation with their total borrowings reaching Rs 5 trillion till October, which is 60 per cent of the projected borrowings of Rs 8.38 trillion till December 2024, according to data from official sources. Government officials said the lower-than-projected borrowings by states were a sign of prudent fiscal management by them. States announce their borrowing plans every quarter.
Days before Diwali, the monthly economic review by the finance ministry has highlighted moderation in urban demand, softening consumer sentiments and limited footfall as areas that need to be watched. In its review, released on Monday, the ministry also noted the early signs of artificial intelligence displacing workers, as described in anecdotal reports. The commentary from several large consumer goods companies, including Nestl India, Hindustan Unilever, and ITC, in their recent quarterly earnings, has been around a sluggish urban demand. Rural consumption, however, has mostly seen a revival, the companies pointed out.
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